Huffington Post Greece – Feb. 08, 2020

On the edge of the abyss. So I can better describe the movements of regional and international players in the files of the Middle East. This has been the case for the last forty years. From one war to another, from one crisis to another, from missile strikes to plane crashes. It is impossible for any researcher or analyst on Middle East political issues to determine the end of these crises. The last forty years have been only a part of the history of an area that has always been the focus of attention and the theater of economic, religious and trade conflicts.

Thousands of kilometers west of this area, in another political setting, the Greek, from the end of World War II onwards, the country can be described as one of the few in the world that does not intervene in international conflicts. All Greek governments have always chosen neutrality and, as a result of this choice, we can say with certainty that Greece is one of the safest countries in the world. But in a single moment, the new Greek government decided to ignore this strategy and put its nose into the shores of the Straits of Hormuz, in a particularly dangerous period that we are near a bloody war more than ever in the last forty years. Did this choice arise after an in-depth study of the region and the Time, or was it done emotionally and without thinking about its positive and negative results?

First of all, it should be emphasized that the new Greek government, since its formation last summer, has not had time to calm down due to external developments, especially regional ones. This fact had a great impact on the plan elaborated by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. This plan, which I had the opportunity to personally consider before the election, was based on the idea that the interior of the country is the most important. It focused on combating corruption and nepotism, on shaping the country into a more attractive investment destination, and hence the discussion of opening its doors to Western, Arab and Chinese investors by organizing government-backed actions.

However, from day one and during the summer, Turkey has been provocatively moving in the Cyprus region, developing three exploration ships, searching for gas and oil in disputed areas. This external crisis introduced a kind of tension in the government that made decisions more emotionally and less after study. On the other hand, Turkish violations are based on the ability of Erdoğan and his government to tame the European side through the file of the four million Syrian refugees living in Turkey. In addition, US-Turkish relations because of Trump are very good in general. While the Turkish moves are well thought out, the Greek government shows that it is unable to keep pace with developments and is moving randomly, so the result is that Turkey continues to make exploration and Greece retreats.

Following Erdoğan’s meeting with Libyan Prime Minister Sarraj’s Government of National Accord, it was announced that the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding that included co-operation in various areas, such as defense, security and economy. One of the most important issues for Greece was the demarcation of the Turkish-Libyan border on both sides away from previous maps and the Law of the Seas of 1982. The result was the plunder of Turkey in a huge part of Greek territorial waters. I need to stop here to highlight the agreement that accompanies the memorandum of understanding, the details of which have not been published in the media:

The agreement stipulates that Turkey and its private companies will have the right to build pipelines and transport Libyan natural gas to Turkey (via the waters that Turkey steals from Greece under the memorandum) and pipelines that will transport Libya’s natural gas to Italy and from there to southern and central Europe, with huge benefits for the Turkish economy. That is why it was necessary to redesign maritime borders between Turkey and Libya.

The memorandum between Ankara and the Libyan National Accord Government led the new Greek government to take more decisions without prior study, the most important of which is, strangely, the deployment of a Greek Patriot missile battery and 130 troops to the eastern part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia near the Strait of Hormuz. Another Greek reaction to Turkey’s moves in the eastern Mediterranean was the possibility of sending a Greek army team inside Libya to oversee the maintenance of the ceasefire. That is, as the famous Palestinian poet Mahmoud Darwish says in one of his poems: “We pray for Andalusia when Aleppo is besieged.”

To clarify the dangers posed by this Greek move in Saudi Arabia, I must recall what the Iranian ambassador to Athens said after the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani by the Americans, stressing that Tehran would respond harshly to any country from which  the US would launch attacks on Iran. When Greece becomes a party, even with a Patriot battery, the least we can say is that the scene is very dangerous. The current regime in Iran, since its inception in 1979, has been working to create spies and military outposts in various parts of the world. From Hezbollah in Lebanon and Al–Baqr in Syria, al-Ḥashd ash-Shaʿbī and Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq to Houthi in Yemen. Not to mention the fact that Tehran is behind many terrorist attacks in many European countries. Therefore, when the new Greek government takes such a step, it means placing Greece on the list of targets of the Tehran militias. With the first terrorist attack in the geographical region of Greece, the dream of thirty million tourists for this year will remain a dream and the road shows to attract investors will be deserted.

Between the arrival of French naval forces and the outgoing Greek forces, Greek officials are becoming increasingly open to French ideas and international action. Greek Patriot sent to eastern Saudi Arabia will be accompanied by French anti-aircraft systems as part of the current French policy aimed at strengthening France’s role in international crises and conflicts after a long period in which France had chosen the spectator position. Also, the Greek move to Libya to agree to send Greek forces is a French idea. France is one of Haftar’s most important military and political supporters and will have a significant share of Libya’s oil. But how will this identification of Athens with the wishes of Paris in any political or military solution benefit us? Did we make verbal promises or did we win secret agreements that would prevent Turkey from continuing its exploration? And if so, why didn’t they stop it in the Cyprus area? Will they prevent Ankara from exploring Greek waters? Let’s be pragmatic. Paris is unable, either diplomatically or militarily, to stop Turkey from exploring and mining, but also supplying arms to Tripoli. So why put hyena in our house?

On the coast of Crete, between the Turkish piracy and the French warships, the temperature is constantly rising. Greece is at a disadvantage and the surrounding atmosphere does not bode well for positive developments. Any superficial move could lead to a Greek-Turkish conflict of a wide or limited size. The losers will be the Greeks and the Turks, while the winners are far from the Aegean Sea.

Macron is lost because of his domestic politics. Protests in the streets of Paris that have been going on for more than a year confirm it, as well as his foreign policy, with the war in Mali to his dirty role in Algeria, Libya and the Middle East, proving that this French government is not a reliable friend or mentor for Greece. The new Greek government must sit down and re-read the domestic, regional and international scene to chart a proper roadmap.