Ethnos – Dec. 10, 2024

According to the political analyst, after the opposition prevailed in Syria, the Syrians displaced in Turkey and other neighbouring areas, who number approximately ten million, began to return to their homes.

Political analyst and Middle East expert Eva Koulouriotis quoted her assessment to ethnos.gr that after a reasonable period of time, calm will prevail in a now united  Syria, preceded by the installation of a  transitional  government and the holding of democratic  elections in the country,  something that both the  political  and military opposition want.

What about Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, which led the opposition?

Regarding the  Syrian opposition  that dethroned  Bashar Al-Assad  and especially the guerrilla group that leads it,  Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham , Ms. Koulourioti estimates that it may have its roots in Al-Qaeda, however, it has cut its ties with it and  its leaders are not fanatical  jihadists  but “thinking and serious people who seek the well-being of the Syrian people .”

As he claims, this was evident both from the stance they have maintained throughout this time in Idlib and from their positions on how the people will govern the country from now on.

“The fall of the Assad regime was something to be expected, for those of us who follow developments in the region, especially after the weakening of the Iranian axis of resistance. Assad found himself between Iran and Israel, which he has been protected for decades. After all, he did not fall from power for so long because Israel did not want him to fall.  Now Assad was a burden and it was the right time for the opposition to move. As for the organizations that make up the opposition, there has been a demonization over the years. The FSA was initially created by military officers among the 150,000 who defected from the Syrian army,” says Ms. Koulouriotis.

“Citizens are returning to their homes”

According to the political analyst, after the opposition prevailed in Syria, the  Syrians displaced in Turkey and other neighbouring countries, who number approximately ten million, began to return to their homes.

“It remains to be seen how the situation will normalize and discussions are taking place in this direction. Of course, it will take some time for this to happen, but I believe that there will be normalization,  for which the current government will also help, as it itself has said.  There should be a transitional situation, in order to lead to elections. I believe that Resolution 2254 of the Security Council will be implemented for the transitional government, the amendment of the Constitution and the unification of the country. Not to have, for example, a Kurdish state or invasions by Turkey, but to make Syria a stable country, as it was 15-20 years ago. This will happen, because I see that this is the intention of everyone, both the political and the military opposition,” says Ms. Koulouriotis.

What will be the role of Russia, the US and Turkey?

Regarding the role that the two superpowers, Russia and the USA, as well as Turkey, will play in the region, the political analyst estimates the following:

Russia is weakened and has essentially abandoned its effort to keep Assad in power, while the US is expected to withdraw its last troops from the region.

“Turkey will attempt to play a role, because of the Kurdish armed forces that are present in the region. There are prominent Kurds within the Syrian opposition who can represent the Kurdish minority in Syria, unlike the armed groups that forcibly recruit warriorsm even female. What the Turks want is to secure their long borders, once the situation normalizes and calm returns to the country. I believe that  Turkey has no reason to go in and out of Syria and I do not believe that it wants to annex territories ,” argues Ms. Koulourioti.

Within all of this, there is also the parameter of Israel, which has currently invaded and occupied territories in southern Syria, with the pretext that it wants to protect its northern borders. According to Ms. Koulouriotis, at this time it is not easy to make any assessment of the stance that Israel will take and whether it will withdraw from Syrian territory. Political channels of communication are needed in order to reach a normalization in this area as well.