Ssofokleousin.gr – Sep. 5, 2016
Operation ‘Euphrates Shield’ was a surprise to many international powers. It began at 4 am on August 24, with the movement of Syrian opposition troops, consisting of 3000 soldiers, towards the town of Jarabulus next to the Syrian border with Turkey, supported by the Turkish army which was equipped with 25 tanks and rocket launchers. They also had air support from Turkish jets targeting ISIS troops in the city. Within eight hours, the forces of the ‘Euphrates Shield’ took out ISIS and liberated Jarabulus.
The question is: why now?
Jarabulus: The historic ancient city located in the northern tip of Syria on the border with Turkey, a city inhabited mostly by Arabs, a Kurdish minority and a small Armenian Christian population, has been involved in the Syrian revolution since its inception in 2011 with many protests against the Assad regime and was captured by Syrian opposition forces in mid-2012. It remained so until January 18, 2014, when the city and surrounding areas fell to ISIS.
The Turkish reaction came after several international and regional moves by the Turkish leadership, starting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to Moscow where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Syrian issue took priority in the talks, which included many agreements on economic cooperation between the two countries. Following this meeting, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif visited Ankara, while US Vice President Joe Biden arrived in Ankara on the same day Operation ‘Euphrates Shield’ began.
A source from the environment of the Russian leadership assured me that the agreement reached the day after the visit of the Turkish President, at the meeting between the Chiefs of General Staff, as well as the heads of the Intelligence Services of the two countries, is summarized in the following points:
(a) Consent to the forces of the Syrian opposition to move through Turkish territory towards the city of Jarabulus.
(b) Consent to the Turkish air force entering the Syrian airspace (I note that the Turkish aircraft stopped entering the Syrian airspace after the downing of the Russian aircraft on November 24, 2015).
(c) Syrian and Russian air forces will not attack Syrian opposition forces, but will support them by striking ISIS targets west of the Euphrates.
This agreement also includes the acceptance of any Turkish military action against the Kurdish forces west of the Euphrates, thus cutting the road to the American dream of creating a Kurdish mini-state in the north of Syria.
In conclusion, what is currently happening in northern Syria is the result of Russian-Turkish agreement and Iranian consent, far from the American strategy, which treats the Kurds as the only ally in the war against ISIS. In the days following the liberation of Jarabulus, we are witnessing a direct confrontation between Turkish-backed Syrian opposition military forces and US-backed Kurdish forces, proving that Turkey has almost completely distanced itself from American hegemony.
Despite what has been said in the last two days by various US officials about reaching an agreement with the Turkish side to stop the hostilities against their Kurdish allies, these are just leaks. The Turks are not going to allow a Kurdish state to be established in northern Syria, at any cost.
The timing of the launch of the ‘Euphrates Shield’ operation is mainly linked to two points:
(a) The first reaction of the Turkish leadership to the White House’s attempt to evade the issue of Fethullah Gülen.
(b) The weakness shown by the US administration in the Middle East over the past few months, due to the upcoming election runoff. So the Turkish leadership felt that this was the opportunity for an operation like the ‘Euphrates Shield’.
In the last few hours of fighting, there has been great progress by the Turkish-backed Syrian opposition forces who managed to connect Jarabulus with the city of Azaz, as a result of which, in principle, ISIS has been completely removed from the Turkish border, and secondly, it has gained the opposition control of 90 km along the border and 15 km wide. This is actually the area that, for two years now, Turkey has repeatedly requested to be declared a safe area in order to ease the burden of refugees.
Since yesterday, China is hosting the G20 summit. Several bilateral meetings are underway, which will determine the future of the region. The most important of these will be between the Turkish President and his American counterpart on the first day of the session, as well as the one with his Russian counterpart today. In my opinion, the Syrian crisis will be the focus of these meetings. Will they be able to reach a solution?