Sofokleousin.gr – July 17, 2017

On the 10th of this month, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced that the Iraqi city of Mosul was ‘liberated’ from the terrorist organization ISIS. This announcement came after more than nine months of fighting by Iraqi and Kurdish forces alongside the International Coalition for Combating Terrorism. These forces have lost a large number of fighters and heavy military equipment, as the death toll of the Iraqi army and the sectarian militias fighting alongside it in the Battle of Mosul is estimated at over 35,000 soldiers.

It is a huge number if we take into account the number of ISIS fighters on the opposing side, which does not exceed 3,000 and fought to the last breath. On the other hand, the number of civilians killed during the fighting as a result of the ethnic cleansing carried out by Iran’s sectarian militias against the fleeing people of Mosul, as well as the international coalition’s airstrikes, has exceeded 10,000, while the missing and injured number many thousands. It is the fifth time this year that the Prime Minister of the Iraqi government has declared victory over ISIS in Mosul. This time, the victory seems more real, since the terrorist organization has lost 98% of the city’s neighborhoods.

The city of Mosul is of strategic and historical significance for Iraq. It is the first large city to be captured by ISIS at the end of 2013, which then expanded to the center of Iraq to gain control of almost 35% of the Iraqi territory in mid-2014. The organization benefited from Mosul strategic position, to link the eastern part of Syria to northern and central Iraq. ISIS also put in possession the tremendous financial reserves it found at the Central bank of the city, which exceeded one billion dollars. The organization finally took advantage of high-quality oil mined in the countryside. Therefore, Mosul’s loss to ISIS will be an important turning point for the future of the organization in general.

It was the first major city captured by ISIS in late 2013, which then expanded into central Iraq to gain control of nearly 35% of Iraqi territory by mid-2014. The organization took advantage of Mosul’s strategic location to connect the eastern part of Syria with northern and central Iraq. It also put in its possession the huge financial reserves it found in the central bank of the city, which exceeded one billion dollars. Finally, the organization took advantage of the high quality oil mined in the countryside of the city. Therefore, the loss of Mosul will be a major turning point for the future of the organization in general.

Mosul, after ISIS, will not be the same again. The terrorist organization will try to move its military and administrative structure out of Iraq and Syria as a last-ditch effort before the final end. But the most important point now is that the future of the city, as well as the reconstruction of the infrastructure, which is estimated at more than 5 billion dollars.

The conflict does not end here, as the international powers will enter a new struggle among themselves for who will control the city. Iran, which has the most influence on Iraqi soil and the Iraqi government, is preparing to re-engineer the oil and gas pipelines that connect it to the Mediterranean and the European continent. Turkey, on the other hand, which has established a military base in the north of the city for two years, expects to play an important role in training and equipping the Iraqi Sunni tribes. However, the USA will have the final say on its future.

After the loss of the city of Mosul, the existence of ISIS on Iraqi soil is only a matter of time. The battle for Raqqa, which began last month, paves the way for the end of the organization in Syria as well. This point was at the top of the discussions between the Presidents of Russia and the US during the recent G20 summit. The two Presidents discussed the future of Syria and Iraq in the post-ISIS era. Leaked information says that the split option is becoming more and more likely. The biggest loser, of course, will be the people of this region.