Politis Cyprus – Feb. 02, 2022

Turkey and Israel are trying to open a new era in their bilateral relations after 12 years of tension and coldness. Israeli President Isaac Herzog is scheduled to visit Turkey on March 9-10. In fact, Tel Aviv seems ready to back down from the conditions it set in Ankara in order to improve their relations, and they referred to Israel’s demand that Turkey cut off contacts with Hamas and expel the members of the Palestinian organisation from the country. It is noteworthy that the President of Israel will visit Cyprus and Greece before traveling to Turkey. However, a process of rapprochement of Turkey with the United Arab Emirates is underway, where an attempt is being made to build the parameters of regional security in the Middle East after the withdrawal of the Americans from the region. Developments are accelerated due to the Ukrainian crisis. Two experts on Middle East issues speak to “P” about the new landscape that is taking shape in the region and the Arab world, explaining how these geopolitical changes are affecting Cyprus.

Starting from the Turkey-Israel rapprochement, political analyst and Middle East expert Eva Koulourioti points out that “the last three years have seen a calm in relations between the two countries after tensions and ruptures due to their regional differences, mainly regarding Hamas and the Kurdish issue. This calm has created the ideal ground for Ankara to rebuild its relations with Israel slowly and steadily. This is what Turkey is generally doing in the region after Biden’s arrival at the White House and Erdogan’s desire to expand the Turkish export market in a bid to revitalise the Turkish economy, which will help boost his popularity, which has been hit hard among Turkish voters who care about their finances more than anything else. This new strategy began with the reduction of tension in the Eastern Mediterranean and the withdrawal of research ships by Ankara, then expanded to direct communication between Ankara and Riyadh and culminated a few days ago with a very important visit by Erdogan to the capital of the UAE, Abu Dhabi. The invitation to the President of Israel to visit Ankara is in the same direction. It should be noted here that Israel has also recently begun to build alliances in the region. Nicosia, Athens and Abu Dhabi are the main pillars of this alliance. That is why the Israeli President will visit Athens and Nicosia before going to Ankara, to confirm that any new page opened with Turkey will not be to the detriment of Israel’s relations with Greece and Cyprus.”

EastMed

Regarding the US decision to withdraw its interest in the EastMed gas pipeline, Ms. Koulourioti estimates that this development will not affect Nicosia’s investments in this sector. “Despite Washington’s reiteration,” she said, “through its ambassador to Athens, Mr Payat, and the State Department that the withdrawal of support for the EastMed project is purely financial and environmental, this decision has caused a great deal of unrest in Athens. On the other hand, Nicosia’s energy plans are not affected by this American move, as Cyprus and Israel are among the first Eastern Mediterranean countries to prioritise energy projects and are already in advanced stages. In my opinion, it is not in the interest of either Athens or Nicosia to show great sensitivity in withdrawing US support for EastMed. Washington is a strategic partner of the two countries, so I do not see any negative impact of this change of line on US relations with Athens or Nicosia. As for the impact of this step on Ankara’s relations with Washington, they are insignificant in the face of issues they disagree but also in others that can bring the two sides closer, such as Ukraine, Bosnia and Syria.”

Ukrainian crisis

Regarding the Ukrainian crisis and the issues of energy security in the European Union and the need to find gas suppliers, Ms. Koulourioti states that “this issue should be a priority for Europe for a long time. Waiting for the temperature to rise on the Russian-Ukrainian border is a dangerous mistake. The European Union, led by Berlin and Paris, has encouraged Moscow in one way or another to raise the ceiling of its demands and aspirations in Ukraine and Eastern Europe by accumulating its dependence on Russian gas. It must be emphasised here that the gas market is large and scalable if Europe rearranges its priorities. That is why I believe that the Eastern Mediterranean region could become a priority for the old continent, contributing to the diversification of natural gas sources. The geographical proximity and strategic relations that bring together Cyprus, Greece and Israel favour the smooth operation of European companies. In fact, the Turkish government read this development in time and that is why it signed contracts with Azerbaijan, so that Turkey is the only corridor for any agreements between Baku and Europe. In the same context, the transfer of Israeli gas to Europe via Turkey will be at the top of the agenda during the Israeli President’s visit to Ankara.”

Asked if changes are expected in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, Ms. Koulourioti replied that “there are two burning issues that will be the beginning of important and sensitive changes in the region. The first is the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, which, if expanded and escalated militarily and leads to NATO intervention, could lead to the creation of a new world order from the effects of which the Middle East will not escape. The other important regional issue at this stage is the future of the nuclear talks in Vienna between Iran and the 4 + 1 countries. Reaching an agreement will mean the economic and political liberation of Tehran, something that will displease Israel. That, in my opinion, will encourage the idea of ​​building a regional alliance in the form of NATO in miniature, which will include Israel, Cyprus, Greece, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt. This alliance will also be more necessary in the light of the failure of the Vienna negotiations to reach an agreement, in which case we will face a nuclear Iran and therefore the beginning of geopolitical changes starting from Tehran to expand and include the Middle East. East as a whole.”