Politis – Nov. 28, 2021

‘Let us more seriously analyze Turkey’

Eva Koulouriotis, political analyst specialising in the Middle East, comments on developments in the Middle East and responds to those who support the position that Turkey is in international isolation. She explains the significance of the recent visit of the successor to the throne of the United Arab Emirates in Turkey and gives two scenarios on how this new step of Abu Dhabi can affect the developments in the eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean.

1. Many say Turkey is in isolation. Is this valid?

Undoubtedly, Turkey cannot be described as an internationally isolated country, as it has, like other countries in the world, friendly relations with some countries and tense relations with others. Of course, this characterisation has begun to be used frequently by the Western media, especially the Greek, in the light of the escalating differences between Paris and Athens with Ankara.

Turkey has significant regional diplomatic and economic relations with Iran, as it tops the list of countries with the most imports from Tehran this year, as is the case with most Middle Eastern countries with which Turkey has political and economic relations.
In Africa last month, Erdogan visited Nigeria, Angola and Tongo as part of the high-level trade with the African continent in general, which reached about $ 20 billion in 2020, mainly with Ethiopia and Libya. To the east, Sino-Turkish relations are stable and most East Asian countries have warm relations with Ankara, especially those that speak Turkish.

Those who have been watching the frequent meetings between Turkish and Russian officials over the past four years know that the Erdogan government has taken the level of relations with Russia to a more convergent stage through arms deals, most notably the S-400 deal, and political agreements, as happened in the Nagorno-Karabakh and Syria files.

As for the West, Turkey was one of the first countries invited to attend the Berlin summit on Libya. In addition, most countries on the European continent have stable diplomatic and economic relations with Turkey despite media attacks against it.

From the American side, it can be said that Turkey is not living its best days under the administration of the White House by the Democrats. However, despite this tension, Biden devoted an hour and a half of his time during the G20 summit to meet with President Erdogan. US and Turkish officials are on constant visits from both sides to discuss Libya, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.

The reality confirms that Turkey today has gained significant regional and international weight and its foreign policies have made it influential in many parts of the world. Some, however, deliberately choose to ignore this fact rather than treat it as a reality, re-evaluating their policy to keep pace with this change. Instead, they choose to invent their own reality to say that Turkey is isolated. If so, why do they continue to talk to her in various “exploratory” contacts and take her out of isolation?

2. What does the recent visit of the successor to the UAE throne to Turkey mean?

This visit did not take place suddenly, nor was it last minute due to the difficult economic situation in Turkey as some try to present it. It is part of the changes and the approach that is developing in the relations between the two countries, especially after the arrival of Joe Biden in the White House. Biden and his team have a geopolitical vision that does not fit into many countries in the region, including Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

This change in the White House has prompted the governments of these countries to reassess their relationship. Steps of rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Turkey have been in that direction, but the case of the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi remains an obstacle. Then came the Turkish-Egyptian rapprochement, which, despite its slowness, was an important step in breaking the ice between Ankara and Abu Dhabi. This was followed by the Al-Ula summit, which ended the alienation between Qatar, Turkey’s most important ally in the Middle East, on the one hand, and the UAE and Saudi Arabia on the other. This included the visit of Emirati National Security Adviser Tahnoun bin Zayed to Ankara and his meeting with the Turkish President about two months ago, which paved the way for Mohammed bin Zayed’s arrival in Ankara.

As for the results of this visit, it is clear that the two sides chose the economy as common ground to change the atmosphere of political and media tension between them. Both are fully aware of the magnitude of their disagreements over various files, mainly in Libya, the eastern Mediterranean and Sudan. It is important to emphasise that this visit does not mean that their differences are completely eliminated, but it may be the beginning of an improvement in the political relations between the two sides, which, in my opinion, will start from the Libyan file. As we are less than a month away from the date of Libya’s presidential election, Abu Dhabi will try to find common ground with Ankara before this election in order to reach a solution that benefits both sides. The outcome of the Libyan issue will be reflected in the other outstanding issues between them.

3. Which other Arab countries are investing in Turkey?

Turkey is generally a breeding ground for investment in the Middle East, despite the tense political climate on many issues. The value of the investments of the state of Qatar, which is the most important ally of Turkey in the region, is estimated at about 33.2 billion dollars. Saudi Arabia has invested about $ 2 billion in Turkey and Riyadh intends to increase its investment there to $ 25 billion in 2023. We must also not overlook the fact that Mohammed bin Zayed’s visit to Ankara has resulted in the establishment of a $ 10 billion investment fund, while a source assured me that this amount is estimated to reach about $ 15 billion next year.

4. However, the Republic of Cyprus signed a memorandum of understanding with the Secretary General of the Cooperation Council of the Gulf states. Does this imply alliances and collaborations that strengthen the security of Cyprus against Turkish actions in the Eastern Mediterranean?

Undoubtedly, Nicosia has significant diplomatic and economic relations with most Arab countries, especially with the Gulf states. These relations have been built on the basis of mutual trust and I understand that there is a kind of fear that the attitude of these countries towards Nicosia may change if their relations with Turkey are restored. In my opinion, this fear may be excessive. These countries had close relations with Nicosia before their relations with Ankara deteriorated, when they were still good and calm.

I believe that, whatever the atmosphere with Ankara, Cyprus will remain a friendly country for the Gulf countries. A prime example is Qatar. Despite its close proximity to Turkey, it is by no means hostile to Nicosia and has made several investments in Cypriot territory. Therefore, the Cypriot administration should work to stabilise the level of its relations with the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council away from the policies of Turkey and the relations of these countries with it.

As for the results of this step of the Emirates towards Turkey regarding the eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean, since we are still in the first days of this approach, we need some time to understand where it will go. I think we are facing one of the following two scenarios:

The first is that Turkey, after its rapprochement with Abu Dhabi, is moving towards increasing the level of its rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, which will reflect positively on its economic reality and push it to focus on the eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean resuming research and escalation there. The second scenario will be related to the role that Abu Dhabi wants to play in the eastern Mediterranean. The administration of the Emirates, which maintains very good relations with Athens and Nicosia, can play the role of positive mediator between the two sides of the conflict. Therefore, the rapprochement of Turkey and the Emirates may be a reason for Athens, Nicosia and Ankara to sit at the same table, to take important positive steps.

5. In general, what is the picture in the Middle East today?

In general, the atmosphere in the Middle East is not at its best, as Washington focuses on the Iranian nuclear file, along with its withdrawal from the Iraq, Syria and Yemen files, which raises concerns in both Israel and Saudi Arabia. In this atmosphere, we can say that the calm that prevails at the current period is before the storm in which Iran will be on one side. The Middle East is currently at a crossroads between returning to a nuclear deal that will not be satisfactory for Israel and consequently an escalation the size of which is unpredictable, or the absence of an agreement so we will enter a dark tunnel that it will not benefit anyone.