Paraskinio – Oct. 21, 2017, issue 601, p. 46

By announcing his candidacy for the post of US President, Donald Trump has promised to amend the nuclear agreement with Iran signed by Obama and his administration in the autumn of 2015 and adopt a different version of it. With the takeover of the White House leadership, Trump confirmed his intention to end the deal, which in his opinion was formulated on the logic of the weaker  and does not limit the dangerous role of Iran in the region and the world. However, over time, he has discovered the complexity of this file, and that the European side will not support any decision to break the agreement for reasons I will explain below.

Iran’s nuclear file and the Iranian ballistic missile file were intensively studied by senior White House officials, Trump’s and McMaster’s National Security Advisor, who leaked the Trump decision to resolve the deal entirely, days before the official announcement of the White House. However, the final detailed announcement on the issue, recently released, shows that the White House had not approved the nuclear agreement but forwarded it back to Congress. I think that Trump did not consent to this, but the great pressure during the two-day talks with European countries was the main reason for the differentiation of his decision.

Arab countries

Iran’s relations with the Gulf states became tense since the outbreak of the Islamic revolution under Khomeini’s leadership in the 1980s. However, in recent years the tension has increased, reaching the end of diplomatic relations. Saudi Arabia leads the anti-Iranian axis in the region. President Trump’s visit to Riyadh in the summer opened a new page between the Gulf countries and the US to form an alliance against the Iranian influence in the region. Indeed, the Arab lobby in the United States has exerted great pressure and supported the position of Trump to end the nuclear agreement, which prompted Iran to increase its hostile behavior in the region by supporting religious militias in Iraq, the brutal Assad regime in Syria, the Hezbollah terrorist militia in Lebanon and Houthi in Yemen, creating a general state of instability in the Middle East. However, King Salman’s recent visit to Moscow, ten days ago, has sparked fears within the US government over the loss of Saudi Arab ally. Thus, Trump decided to satisfy the Kingdom through the termination of the Iranian nuclear agreement.

Europe

In particular, Germany, France and Italy are more supportive of the nuclear agreement with Iran. These countries have signed many oil and gas agreements and opened their doors to huge Iranian investments. The language of interests is the one that drives the decision of these countries. The abolition of the agreement by the White House means that the economic blockade will return and these agreements, estimated in billions, will be frozen.

US Administration

Within the US government itself, there is a division regarding the Iranian nuclear file. The Republican Party is generally not satisfied with it and supports the White House to end it. The Democratic Party, in which Iran exerts enormous influence, was never satisfied with the modification of the nuclear agreement. On the contrary, the powerful Israeli lobby understands that it is a threat to Israel. The US Department of State, led by Tillerson, consider the middle ground solution to be the best. McMaster believes America should impose more sanctions and restrictions on Iran and its military arm, Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Trump is in the middle of this turmoil.

Intensive contacts have recently taken place between the US Department of State and Secretary Tillerson with Russia, France, Germany and Britain. There has also been communication with officials in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. A high-ranking western source pointed out to me that both France and Germany rejected the idea of ​​terminating the agreement and stressed that they would not cease to work on its basis, regardless of the White House’s decision. This view was similar to that of Russia, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE supported its suspension. Finally, the British view was to tighten the deal by imposing greater control on Iran’s nuclear program.

The American President, who is already suffering from mistrust, being in a dilemma between the sides who agree, argue, reject or threaten, chose the middle way: not to show confidence in the deal and forward it to Congress. In doing so, he fulfills his pre-election promise and, while not rejecting it as a whole, restrains European anger. Moreover, the study of sanctions by the US Treasury to the Iranian Corps of Revolutionary Guard would satisfy Saudi Arabia and Israel. In this way, Trump moved away from the impasse, having referred the matter to Congress to take responsibility for the continuation or maintenance of the deal. Iran may have another view of new sanctions, but it is likely that it will not proceed to escalation, only in blank statements.