Huffington Post Greece – Apr. 3, 2017

In the last few days we have seen a loss of land for the Assad regime in Syria for the benefit of the forces of the Syrian opposition. Does this signify the existence of international changes that will change the correlations in the Syrian field? Two days after opposition attacks in the eastern districts of Damascus, a massive military operation started by the Syrian opposition armed forces in the countryside of the northern province of Hama, resulting in the acquisition of 215 sq. kilometers and the proximity of only 3 km from the city of Hama and the military airport. My sources confirm that their aim is the long-term control and therefore access to the north of Homs, which is besieged for about three years.

These military developments came after the visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to Moscow, the refusal of the Syrian opposition to participate in Astana’s talks, and the recent Russian movements in Afrin, in the far north-west of Syria, controlled by PYD and YPG, the Kurdish units associated with the terrorist PKK. The creation of a Russian military base in the region, as announced by a Kurdish source, will prevent any future attempt to target it by Turkey and its allies.

There are three realistic interpretations of these developments. The first is that the meeting between the Turkish and the Russian President was tense and led to differences of opinion between the two sides, making Moscow move to Afrin and the Turks send, through the aggressive movements of the opposition forces, the message that they are able to reorder the deck again.

The second explanation is that Erdoğan and Putin reached a secret deal to increase the two countries’ control over the greatest possible part of Syrian territory, while Russia will be joined by Kurds through the development of new bases in Afrin against Americans and Turkey will urge the Syrian armed opposition to extend its control to Hama and Damascus at the expense of the Iranian presence in Syria.

The third explanation is that the meeting between the two Presidents was calm, but Turkey is very busy with the referendum on constitutional amendments and preparations for the battle of Raqqa, so it has no interference in the developments of Hama, while the Russian move in Afrin is an effort to distance the Kurds from US influence.

This last interpretation is the closest to reality. Turkey is not ready to lose Russian support in the face of major European and American pressures. Also, Russia, which is trying to impose itself as the ultimate solution to the Syrian crisis, is not prepared to lose Turkey, which is capable of influencing developments in Syria. The last movement of the Syrian opposition may be supported by the Arab states, which recently distanced themselves from the Syrian crisis developments because of fear of the new US administration, so this was viewed as an opportunity to demonstrate their ability to influence the course of the Syrian crisis and thus impose themselves as a key factor in any future solution.