What would happen if Tehran chose to take revenge on Athens in a more violent way and terrorist attacks inside Greece?


Pentapostagma – 28/05/2022

“The situation is now leading to more complications, as the Greek authorities have handed over the Iranian ship to the American side, which makes it impossible to negotiate with the Iranian side for the exchange,” she said of the dramatic events of the last hours in her exclusive interview with PENTAPOSTAGMA Ms. Evanthia Koulourioti, Political Analyst specializing in Middle East issues, and columnist in many foreign networks.

According to the expert, the new Greek regional policy played an important role in the recent events, the culmination of which was on the one hand the rapprochement of the Mitsotakis government with Israel and the United Arab Emirates and on the other hand the deeper rapprochement with Washington.

She parallels what happened in Karystos with a similar incident in Gibraltar in 2019, and considers a possible even greater escalation on the part of Iran or entering into secret rounds of negotiations where Tehran will blackmail the Greek government into paying a ransom.

She describes as “gambling” the direction of the Greek government towards the military cooperation with Israel and the Emirates and then the deeper cooperation with the signing of a joint defense agreement. Expresses her opinion on what should be the steps for disengagement and solution to the issue of tanker occupation, analyzes the treatment of the issue by the Mitsotakis government, does not see that the strained Greek-Iranian relations can have an impact on the already complex Turkish scene and finally warns …. for the worst!

-Mrs. Koulourioti, do you consider the incident with the occupation of the Greek tankers by the “Iranian Guards of the Revolution” a circumstantial one or the result of specific factors in the Athens-Tehran relations?

First of all, it should be emphasized that, despite the fact that Greece is an important member of the NATO alliance and a strategic friend of the US, the previous Greek governments have always tried to maintain balanced and positive relations with Tehran on many levels (diplomatic – economic).

Cooperation in the oil, gas and shipping sectors between the two countries was an important factor in consolidating these relations, and this was evident when Athens was the first European country to re-sign oil and gas contracts after the lifting of US and European sanctions against the Iranian regime with the 2015 nuclear deal. The SYRIZA government also held a series of diplomatic talks to pave the way for Iranian investment, including the reopening of Bank Saderat Iran within Greek territory.

However, this calm atmosphere began to become very tense without this appearing in public and the signs became clearer when the New Democracy government under Kyriakos Mitsotakis adopted a new regional relations policy, culminating on the one hand in a rapprochement with Israel and the United Arab Emirates and on the other hand a deeper rapprochement with Washington. In fact, the above led to the events of the last three days, with the Greek authorities seizing an Iranian tanker near the island of Evia, on American orders, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards responding by occupying two Greek-flagged ships in the Persian Gulf.

-The tangle began to unfold from the events of Karystos. Do you find similarities with the summer of 2019, when the Gibraltar authorities seized the Iranian ship Grace 1, a fact that led to an escalation between London and Tehran? Do you think that we can have similar consequences?

As a Middle East observer, when Tehran announced that the Greek authorities had seized the Iranian tanker, the first thing that came to my mind was the events of the summer of 2019 when London seized the Iranian ship Grace 1 in the Strait of Gibraltar and Tehran responded by occupying the British ship Stena Impero, as happened yesterday with the occupation of two Greek ships by Iran.

It is true that the situation is now leading to more complications, as the Greek authorities handed over the Iranian ship to the American side, which makes it impossible to negotiate with the Iranian side for the exchange.

Thus, an even greater escalation is possible on the part of Iran or the entry into secret rounds of negotiations where Tehran will blackmail the Greek government into paying a ransom in exchange for the release of the crew of the two Greek ships and the commitment not to obstruct Iranian ships again. This begs the question of whether Washington will agree to these Athens concessions or obstruct the negotiations. And to get an answer, we have to wait.

-To what extent have Iranian-Greek relations been affected, given our country’s close cooperation with Israel and the UAE, traditional enemies of Tehran?

Indeed, the increase in the level of cooperation between Greece on the one hand and Israel and the UAE on the other in the fields of economy, energy and investment is a very important and necessary step to promote the Greek economy.

However, the direction of the Greek government towards the military cooperation with these two countries and then the deeper cooperation with the signing of a joint defense agreement was a step that can be characterized as “gambling”.

Those of us who are watching closely the region are aware of the dangers and that slipping into a military conflict between Tehran and its allies in the region with Israel, the UAE and their allies is a very likely scenario, especially now that talks on the Iranian nuclear deal have led to a stalemate. Therefore, Mitsotakis’ government, with these steps, has been positioned as an enemy of Iran, even if it did not mean it.  In my opinion, the Iranian side is closely monitoring the Greek movements and that is why yesterday we saw such a quick and aggressive response that did not require much thought.

-After the incident of the occupation, how do you estimate that an attempt will be made to give a solution to the ‘Gordian knot’?

I believe that the Greek government should urgently send a message of calm to the Iranian side, in order to limit the escalation, as Athens will be the biggest loser from a growing cycle of tension towards a side that is accustomed to escalation.

As for the next step, it must prepare for difficult negotiations, which should initially result in a halt to any Iranian response to Greek ships in the Gulf and then the release of the crews of the two ships, nine of which are Greek citizens according to with the first information.

These negotiations must be realistic and clear that Greece is not participating in any current escalation between Tehran and Washington or any possible escalation in the future between Tehran and its enemies in the region, led by Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

-Are the Mitsotakis government and its pro-American position being charged with the concern of the entire Greek shipping fleet to Iranian piracy?  

This question should be addressed to the officials of the Greek government who took the step of occupying the Iranian ship. Athens could abstain and leave the issue of seizure to the American side so that it is responsible for any consequences of this dangerous step. This leads me, as a specialist in the Middle East, to wonder if the officials in Athens have rationally studied this step and its impact on the Greek shipping sector, which controls 26% of the world’s oil tankers crossing the Gulf, whose countries (Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar) are at the top of the activities of Greek shipping companies.

That is, they are exposed to the mercy of Tehran and its military wing, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Thus, any new mistake of the Greek government in dealing with this event can lead to disastrous results not only for Greece and its economy, but also for Europe and the world. The shutdown of Greek shipping companies will exacerbate the global energy crisis by over-fueling prices in parallel with the impact of current Western sanctions on Russia.

-Can Turkey take advantage of the deteriorating Athens-Tehran relations?

At the moment, Ankara and Tehran are facing strained relations in light of recent Turkish military moves in northern Iraq against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militia, on the one hand, and through Ankara’s attempt to sign a long-term agreement for the transportation of oil and gas from the Kurdistan region of Iraq to Europe via pipelines across the Turkish territory. The move has challenged Tehran, which seeks to top the list of gas and oil exporters to Europe.

This tension could also be transferred to Syrian territory where Turkey wants to control northern Syria through the expected military operation in the coming days or weeks, something that is also avoided by Tehran, which is the main supporter of the Assad regime in Damascus. Therefore, I do not see that the tense Greek-Iranian relations can have an impact on the already complex Turkish scene.

-Can the consolidated anti-Russian stance of the Greek government lead to other “surprises” like the last one?  

It seems that the Mitsotakis government has made its decision to faithfully follow the American line, no matter how negative the consequences on the Greek scene, politically or economically. But what would happen if Tehran chose to take revenge on Athens in a more violent way? Tehran’s military arms in the region, which stretch from al-Hashd ash-Shaʿbī in Iraq to Hezbollah in Lebanon, are capable of pushing for terrorist attacks inside Greece or targeting Israeli civilians on Greek soil. It is certain that such an attack will have catastrophic consequences for the Greek economy with a heavy impact on tourism and investment.

Therefore, the escalation with Iran over the last three days must be treated rationally and pragmatically, putting Greek national interests as a priority, away from any pressure that Washington may exert on the Greek negotiators.